Dr Doom (aka Neil Ferguson) said 10 days ago it was “almost
inevitable” that the U.K. would hit 100,000 daily cases, and possibly as
many as 200,000.
However, yesterday he executed a volte farce and said:
“I’m quite happy to be
wrong if it’s wrong in the right direction. If case numbers stay low,
that will be really good news.
I think I’m positive that by late
September, October time, we will be looking back at most of the
pandemic.”
By happenstance Prof Karl Friston, Professor of Imaging Neuroscience, UCL, and
panellist on the ‘Independent SAGE’ with special responsibility for
modelling, said that models shouldn't be used for predictions:
"It may be that people have been over interpreting the worst-case
scenario modelling from the SPI-M that suggested a hundred thousand
cases per day over the summer.
However, these reports are carefully
qualified and say explicitly that they are not forecasts and
predictions."
Now whilst it is all very nice and welcome that these "experts" are telling us things look better, models shouldn't be relied upon and it's better to be over cautious, they are neglecting several key facts:
- Many people have been worried shitless over the past few months because of their doom laden predictions
- The government and media have been relying on these models
- The government has made decisions based on these models
- The consequences of the decisions made (eg lockdowns and ongoing restrictions) have inflicted considerable costs on businesses and considerable costs (mental, health, financial) on individuals
You cannot just wash your hands of these models by saying they shouldn't be used as forecasts etc!
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