I see that some Swedish research (published in the British Journal of Cancer from researchers at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm) has identified that if we eat 50g of processed meat a day (ie one sausage or two rashers of bacon) the chances of us going down with pancreatic cancer increases by 19%.
Eat 150g and the risk increases by 57%.
Cue media deluge of shite, claiming that bacon etc gives you cancer.
However, here's the reality, the average person has a 1% chance of going down with pancreatic cancer. Therefore an increase of 57% raises that risk to around 2%.
I think I will continue eating my sausages and bacon!
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but if we only have our bacon and sausage every other day with a pint of beer, get into a routine and go for a 30 minute walk then we could win the olympics and die happy.
ReplyDeleteWithout spending vast amounts of money on research, I have calculated that if I pay for two lines of numbers on the lottery instead of my usual one, my chances of winning the jackpot increase by ‘ a whopping’ 100%.
ReplyDelete@Anon - I have a better proposal for you.
DeleteBuy 2 lines on the Lottery = 100% increase
Next week - revert to a single line = a mere 50% decrease.
Repeat until you become RICH
Or until you realise that statisticians may have a great sense of humour, but no pity.
[Many years ago a reporter asked the owner of a Football Pools Co to explain their business. The answer was along the lines of -
"Invite people to send you money, promise that you will keep whatever proportion is needed to run the Company, plus whatever you feel you can get away with as profit. Then send the rest back to a few subscribers chosen at random, and advertise the fact as widely as possible"]
Sorry to be a pedant but..
ReplyDeleteThe world-wide average for the incidence of pancreatic cancers is 8-12 cases per 100000 population. I believe the UK is around 6-8 per 100000.
So that isn't 1% (taking my shoes and socks off for the maths) it's closer to 0.0008%. So a 57% increase changes that to (er.. times 10, carry the 1..) 0.0008456% (please someone cleverer than wot I is do the math for me).
The British Pancreatic Cancer Society quote 6500 new cases a year. Population of >65 million gives <0.01%.
Puts a slightly different perspective on the risk, doesn't it?
Oh, and for the record - you will only take my bacon when you pry my frying-pan from my cold, dead hands!
(pass the ketchup someone)
Able
ReplyDeleteThanks for the stats, my 1 in 77 stat came from the Grauniad!
The constant droning of stats that we recieve every day from the media and Nanny, convinces me more and more that we are living in a George Orwell inspired 1984 state.
ReplyDeleteAs with Ken my stat came from the Guardian, oops I mean BBC, oops I mean...well they are the same shite. Odds are increased from hardly anything to a smidgen more than hardly anything
ReplyDelete