Monday, October 19, 2015
Why The Met Gets The Weather Wrong
Ever wondered why the Met's long term weather forecasts are so crap?
The answer lies in the fact that the Met has succumbed to the quasi religion of Global warming.
In a series of recent posts on Notalotofpeopleknowthat blog, Paul Homewood has been plotting the Met Office’s predictions against its own recorded data. In one, entitled “Met Office forecasts contain a warming bias”, he compared all its running three-monthly forecasts for the first nine months of 2015, made on the basis of “observations, several numerical models and expert judgment”, with what actually happened. Seven months this year, they told us, would be hotter than usual. In fact, six of the nine months were cooler than normal, and October looks like being yet another botched call.
Against its frequent claims that we can expect “a general increase in summer temperatures” thanks to “human influence on climate”, the Met Office’s own data show that, since 2006, summers have on average become cooler.
Another of its constant obsessions has been with “extreme rainfall”, as reflected in a report by the BBC’s Roger Harrabin in 2013 headed “Met Office predicts 'extreme rainfall increasing’. A recent paper by the Royal Meteorological Society, based on the Met Office’s England and Wales dataset, found there have been “no significant trends” in the “intensity of rainfall” over the 84 years since that record began.
The Telegraph notes that Neil Catto, a former Met Office employee, has plotted data from a representative sample of Met Office UK weather stations every day since 1998. On every one of his graphs recording temperature, rainfall and much else, the trend line over 18 years has been astonishingly consistent. Despite fluctuations, the overall trend has been flat. The general pattern of our weather has remained remarkably unchanged.
The fact is that the data, belies the predictions which are skewed because of the Met's messianic belief in global warming.
Indeed, as loyal readers know, the Met is so bad at predicting the weather that even Auntie has sacked it!
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