Nanny Knows Best

Nanny Knows Best
Dedicated to exposing, and resisting, the all pervasive nanny state that is corroding the way of life and the freedom of the people of Britain.

Monday, November 02, 2020

SAGE Appears To Be Running Amok - #StuffSAGE


The slides leaked to the BBC on estimated COVID-19 deaths, and presented at the government press conference on the 31st October, were based on different models from at least three weeks ago.

This allows us to check the projections for November the 1st. 

The PHE/Cambridge model on this date has an estimated projection of 1,000 deaths, yet deaths are averaging just over 200 deaths for this date on the government’s staging website.

We estimate the Imperial model to be projecting approximately 486 deaths on the 1st of November, LSHTM 266 deaths and Warwick 234.

Saturday’s Downing Street press conference had scientists present graphs suggesting England could see 4,000 daily deaths early next month. These figures appear to be grossly misleading, even the USA has not topped 2,000 deaths per day and its population is approximately six times larger than the UK's. 

Nanny has been scared witless before with the infamous Imperial model of 500K deaths, Nanny now appears to be falling for the same style of exaggerated projections again.

The models are only as good as the data and assumptions fed into them; it is apparent that both the data and assumptions used are not credible. As such, we need to ask why are SAGE allowed to take effective control of government decisions without rigorous analysis of their data and assumptions?

In the fog of war decisions have to be made on the basis of imperfect data. However, when that data is so wildly off the mark you have to question the motivation of those who present it!

It is clear that Covid should not just be allowed to rip willy nilly through the country. However, a more measured and targeted response (as the Tier system was trying to do) which is less brutal than the blunt mallet of a lockdown is surely appropriate?

At the very least, when people are being told to lockdown they deserve to be given the full facts of the costs of the lockdown (in terms of the economic, health, education and psychological damage that lockdowns cause). is brought to you by "The Living Brand"

Visit Oh So Swedish Swedish arts and handicrafts

No comments:

Post a Comment