Spanish Nanny's Masterclass In Covid-19 Statistical Manipulation

NEW: much has been made this week of Spain recording zero new Covid deaths for two successive days.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchéz called it "A success for all".

Unfortunately it’s also nonsense.

Story by me & @danieldombey: https://t.co/kThBKffKeD

Thread follows:

— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) June 4, 2020

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ASH Burns Its Fingers

ASH says that plain packaging, which is not in effect yet, explains why *last year's* smoking rate is lowest ever https://t.co/DUuxKnkMJR

— Ben Southwood (@bswud) September 20, 2016

Deborah Arnott, chief executive of the campaign group Action on Smoking and Health (Ash), said:

“The continuing decline in smoking prevalence is a tribute to many years when successive governments have implemented comprehensive and progressive tobacco control strategies, including tax rises, mass media campaigns, anti-smuggling measures, smoke-free laws, advertising bans, and last but not least getting rid of tobacco displays and glitzy tobacco packaging.”

It's all very well to crow about the "effectiveness" of plain packs, but ASH seem to have "forgotten" that plain packs didn't come into the UK until May 2016. The decline in smoking stats refer to 2015 and earlier.

Most likely the increased use of vaps accounts for the decline, certainly not plain packs.

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Nanny's Health Atlas

Nanny's chums from the UK Small Area Health Statistics Unit at Imperial College have produced an online health atlas.

As per the site:

"The Environment and Health Atlas for England and Wales is an independent publication produced by the Small Area Health Statistics Unit (SAHSU), an academic unit funded by the Medical Research Council and Public Health England. The aims of the atlas are:

• To provide baseline information for policy makers and the public on geographic patterns of environmental agents and disease.
• To help in development of hypotheses to understand and explain variability in disease risk that may relate to the environment, lifestyle factors and/or location.
• Following on from this, to help in development of research to investigate potential causal relationships between environment and health factors – where either evidence or lack of evidence for an effect provides important information to inform public health and policy.

The atlas provides maps of the geographical variations for a range of health conditions and environmental agents at a small-area scale (census wards). The maps have been developed as a resource for those working in public health and public health policy and for the general public to better understand the geographic distribution of environmental factors and disease. It is important to note that simple comparison of mapped environmental agents and health conditions cannot be used to indicate causal associations. For this more information about other factors that might affect disease risk (for example the actual dose received by an individual, the exposure pathway and individual factors such as smoking, other medical conditions and family history) and further statistical analysis would be needed."

I guarantee that millions of people will now end up being massively confused and worried by the statistics, and that Nanny's chums in government and the various health quangos will freely misuse this data for their own ends.

The health atlas allows individuals to type in their postcode and find out whether people living in their area are at higher or lower risk of host of diseases than the rest of the country.

The atlas has already thrown up questions for further research such as why sunshine levels are highest in the southeast but skin cancer rates are highest in the southwest.

Prof Paul Pharoah, Professor of Cancer Epidemiology, University of Cambridge, is quoted by the Telegraph:

"People should definitely not use this atlas to decide where to live.” 

ROFLOL!!!

Of course they farking will!

Oh, and by the way, such is the level of demand for the site that it has just fallen over.

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Booze Matters - Nanny's Bollocks Statistics

FFS won't that old witch Nanny give it a rest with her incessant carping about our drinking habits?

I almost choked on my morning vodka today, when I read that Nanny is now getting her knickers in a twist over the fact that there is a dichotomy between reported booze sales and what we tell Nanny we actually drink.

Shock horror probe!

"Research" published today by the European Journal of Public Health purports to show that England is a nation of secret boozers, with over 33% of the population drinking unhealthy quantities of alcohol.

Seemingly, if the "research" is to be believed self-reported alcohol consumption accounts for between 40% and 60% of sales.

Now why would this be?

Well here's a couple of obvious points:

1 We don't drink everything we buy as soon as we buy it; eg people lay down wines and stock up on beer etc for future consumption. I, for instance, buy 96 cans of Red Stripe at a time in order to get a good deal on the price; that doesn't mean to say that I down them all in one evening!

2 Who the fark in their right mind would ever tell Nanny about their private lives eg drink habits? Of course those statistics are wrong.

Anyhoo, irrespective of those two obvious flaws in Nanny's "research", Nanny has drawn the conclusion (based on dodgy "research") that 44% of men and 31% of women in England are drinking more than the Royal College of Physicians' safety guidelines for weekly alcohol consumption.

Yawn, well as loyal readers know guidelines are merely that "guidelines" for the "average" person (whoever he/she is), and are not meant to be rigid rules enforceable by law etc.

Sadly of course Nanny doesn't see it that way.

Lead researcher Sadie Boniface, from University College London, is quoted by the Independent:

"Currently we don't know who consumes almost half of all the alcohol sold in England. This study was conducted to show what alcohol consumption would look like when all of what is sold is accounted for, if everyone under-reported equally.

The results are putative, but they show that this gap between what is seen in the surveys and sales potentially has enormous implications for public health in England."

In other words the "research" has been a farking waste of time, money and effort!

Oh, and for good measure, the statistics used are out of date; Boniface used "self reported stats" from 2008.

We can safely conclude that the whole thing is complete and utter bollocks!

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Lost

One of the problems of living in a Nanny state, where Nanny is so "proactive" and "restless" in seeking out "problems" to fix, is that her very "proactive" nature itself causes more problems.

A particularly fine example of Nanny's restless search for problems, where they do not exist, is the remarkable confusion and fuss that she is causing in three London boroughs (Hammersmith, Kensington and Westminster) over so called "troubled families".

Nanny is of the view that there are 1720 "troubled families" in these three boroughs, who need Nanny's (ie the three councils' help).

Unfortunately the three councils, despite looking high and low, can only find 32 "troubled families".

Does this discrepancy matter?

In Nanny's world it does, for she is certain that there are 1720 "troubled families" and is insisting that they be helped, even though no one knows who they are.

Thus, as sure as eggs are eggs, in a few months time (in order to shut Nanny up) the three councils will doubtless find 1720 families (even if they are not "troubled") and bestow upon them Nanny's bounteous generosity.

You can read in detail here on the Local Government Chronicle about how Nanny is tying herself up in knots over the issue, it is all very depressing (for a number of reasons) and is a good example of how the state more often than not makes things worse for everyone.


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Booze Matters - Just a Little Bit More

I am gemused to see that Nanny (remember folks MPs get to drink tax subsidised booze) still has a bee in her bonnet about how much we drink.

I am therefore hugely gemused to see that she has now started airing TV adverts that recommend that we drink "just a little bit more".

Hear hear hear!!

What?

What's that you say?

The adverts are warning us of the dangers of drinking "just a little bit more"?

Well that's a bit stupid isn't it?

An advert drawing our attention to drinking "just a little bit more" is in fact going to tempt us to drink "just a little bit more" isn't it?

Ho Hum, seemingly Nanny is of the view that these adverts will not tempt us to drink "just a little bit more" and is trying to warn us of the increased risks of mouth cancer from booze.

Will Nanny's MPs be giving up their subsidised booze then, in the face of this danger?

No, I thought not!

Wrt the risk of getting mouth cancer, here's the reality according to Cancer Research:

- The ACTUAL risk of contracting mouth cancer is approximately 8 in 100,000


That means that there is is a 99.992% chance that you WON'T get mouth cancer.

Drinking two glasses of wine per day reduces the risk that you WON'T get mouth cancer to 99.976%

As ever with Nanny, and the cretins in the media and House of Commons, the concept of risk has been distorted from almost zero chance to "absolutely definite" merely to support a political agenda.

This of course makes a mockery of all government health warnings, as no one will believe them anymore!

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Booze Matters - How To Talk Bollocks With Statistics

Nanny's chums from Alcohol Concern (AC) have published a the results of a study that suggests that for every two off-licences per 100,000 population, one under-18 year-old was admitted to hospital for alcohol poisoning or intoxication between 2006 and 2009.

AC are using the results of the study to call for the restriction of the number of off licences.

Reasonable?

No, not really.

Aside from the fact that the law clearly states that under 18's are not allowed to buy alcohol, ie the number of off licences is irrelevant when it comes to underage law breaking re booze buying, AC sweeps under the carpet an anomaly in the study.

Whilst the study claims to find a relationship between the density of off-licences and under-18 alcohol-related hospital admissions across England it does not find such a relationship in London, ie there was no statistical link for London.

London, for those of you who don't know, is actually quite a large place!

Also, rather ironically, a report from the NHS Information Centre "Smoking, drinking and drug use among young people in England 2010" shows that the proportion of 11-15 year olds who had never drunk alcohol increased from 39% in 2003 to 55% in 2010.

In addition, those that have tried alcohol appear to be drinking less. The proportion of pupils who drank alcohol in the last week fell from a peak of 26% in 2001 to 13% in 2010.

There you go folks, make of that what you will; you can do anything with statistics if you have a political or "moral" agenda.

However, the key point is this, off licence density (or rather regulating off licence density) is irrelevant. The law clearly states that under 18's are not allowed to buy booze, ie the means are in place already to deal with underage booze buying.

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Happiness

I am gemused to see that our coalition government has announced that it will spend around £2M a year measuring our "happiness".

A fascinating idea yet, somehow, I suspect deeply flawed.

Let us start with the basics, ie what exactly is "happiness"?

There are some basic theories that state that humans have several levels of "needs" that have to be satisfied before they achieve "nirvana".

The basic "needs" are:

- Food
- Shelter
- Safety/warmth
- Sex

Once these have been sated, the human "id" (or ego) takes over, and mankind (so the theory goes) looks for fulfillment (or his/her destiny) via intellectual pursuits and "leisure activities that boost the ego and give rise to feeling of self satisfaction/contentment.

Hmmmm, all well and good, yet measuring these key performance indicators (KPI's) is all but impossible.

1 As each new generation is born in the "First World", their aspirations are higher than the previous generation.

Economic, political, technological and social advancement means that each generation expects growth and improvement in their basic conditions. Our grandfathers would have been more than content with a roof over their heads and an indoor privy. The current generation expects nothing less than a 42 inch plasma TV with internet access etc.

2 One person's view of "enough" wrt eg food or sex, is not the same as another's. There are some who can make do with sex once a month whilst there are others, eg certain "celebrities", who cannot get a "boner" unless it's at least 3 in a bed twice a day with half a kilo of coke.

3 It is fair to say that many in the UK are more than sated wrt their food intake, one only has to watch people stuff their faces with all manner of shit from takeaways etc to see that.

Yet, take a close look at many of these face stuffers and ask yourselves are they really happy?

To my view they look terribly unhappy, and are in fact using food to take their minds off their own self perceived misery and self pity.

4 Despite all our social and economic advances, there are still people in this country who do not have a roof over their heads, who live in cold damp rooms and who do not have enough to eat.

Unless their basic needs are met there can be no effective measure of the country's happiness, because they have yet to get to the next level (where "happiness" is meant to kick in).

5 The Orifice of National Statistics will be the organ of the state assigned the task of measuring "happiness". As we know from its lamentable record wrt providing economic statistics whatever numbers it reports are unreliable, out of date and subject to revision.

Having proven that measuring "happiness" is all but impossible, the question that also needs to be asked is whether this really is any of the government's business?

Traditional political models work on the assumption that if the government stimulates the economy, and ensures that there is a reasonable level of "full" employment, then people will be happy. As demonstrated above, "happiness" is a little but more complicated than that.

For sure, money alone cannot buy you happiness. However, abject poverty in the face of conspicuous abundance is miserable.

The real key to "happiness" is a subjective mixture of:

- "wealth",
- "freedom", and
- the expectation/"hope" of self improvement.

These three "keys" to happiness can only come about when a government runs a "plug in and play" environment, whereby the individual can safely go about his/her business (without harming others) in the expectation that the government will not keep changing the rules of the game or stifle initiative and self growth via excessive rules, regulations and taxes.

This means that governments need to focus on downsizing their role in society, and individuals need to become (and be allowed to become) more responsible for their own lives.

Wasting money on measuring "happiness" will not achieve anything tangible, other than a "feelgood" buzz for Nanny.

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Massaging The Figures

Oh dear oh dear, poor old Plod has been been caught out massaging the figures for violent crime.

Despite no one with half a brain believing Nanny's political "top" cops, when they reeled out figures "proving" that violent crime was on the decline, Nanny continued to insist that things were getting better.

Sadly, she was talking bollocks.

Most people knew that already, and had long since stopped believing the bullshit figures spewed forth by Nanny's "top" cops.

It seems, dear readers, that Nanny and her "top" cops were in fact "misreporting" (I think that means "massaging") the figures (ie they were lying); certain types of violent crime were in fact not included within the violent crime statistics.

My advice to Nanny, and her political game playing "top" cops, is simple.

The role of the police is not to play politics, but to ensure that the streets are crime free and that people feel safe in their own homes.

Stop playing politics, and go back to real policing!

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